Can Mexican Democracy Survive Drug Violence?

On Oct 16^th, at a meeting with a delegation of European Union officials, Mexican President Felipe Calderon denied allegations that the recent wave of violence in Mexico was analogous to what Colombia experienced in the 1980s. Only hours later, former Presidential Candidate Diego Fernandez de Cevallo went missing, suspected to have been kidnapped.

Calderon denied that organized crime was taking hold in Mexico as it did in Colombia during the reign of terror caused by Pablo Escobar and the Medellin Cartel. During this time, Pablo Escobar himself was elected into Colombia’s congress while earning a fortune as the leader of the world’s biggest cocaine trafficking network. Bribery and corruption were commonplace in the government, and the murder rate was through the roof. In particular, policemen and politicians who threatened Escobar’s interests were targeted and killed by his hit men.

In Mexico these days, these stories are frighteningly commonplace. On 15 March, three people connected to the US Consulate were gunned down in a drive by shooting. On 4 Oct, an armed gang abducted 20 men, and have yet to be found. Suspected drug hitmen ambushed a police convoy, killed 8 officers on 12 Oct. On 13 Oct, a Mexican police chief who was investigating the disappearance of a US man killed by pirates while we was jet skiing. The Police chief had received death threats to stay out of the gang’s territory. On Wednesday his decapitated head was found in a suitcase near a Mexican army base. In all, it is reported by BBC that 28,000 people have been killed in drug related violence since the beginning of Calderon's term in 2006. Every day there are more and more stories like these, and it doesn’t seem that there are any signs that it is going to end soon.

Mexico seems to be in the early stages of what Colombia went through in the 1980s. So far there have not been many cases of political corruption in the higher levels of government tied to the drug trade, but it may be the case that higher level links just have not been revealed yet. There have been several indications of lower level corruption in the political system. 3,200 police officers were fired at the end of August for links with criminals. Drug gangs have intimidated populations through the killing of congressional candidates and mayors, including the torture and murder of Nicholas Leon, two time mayor of port city Lazaro Cardenas. Further indicative of a potential development down the path to 1980s Colombia, some cartels like La Familia Michoacana have sought political and social standing in society as well and use evangelical-type recruitment methods to garner support.

That extreme levels of violence must influence the electoral choices of Mexicans cannot be denied. It provides the context that Mexicans are living in right now. Despite Calderon's claims, it seems that America's southern neighbour is indeed travelling the same path as Colombia.

Mexicans can take some consolation in the fact that their democratic institutions are likely to outlive this wave of violence. Professor Steven Barracca at the University of Texas argues that while drug related corruption hinders anti-drug efforts by the police and military, it does not undermine the principle of civilian supremacy in Mexican democracy. Even though the times ahead will be bloody, frustrating, and at times hopeless, Mexican democracy will survive this violent interlude and strengthen their institutions much the same as Colombia.